Major League Baseball Top Prospects Weekly Ten-Pack, September 24
With the Arizona Fall League rosters not out as of Sunday evening, focus this week will be on minor league baseball players who had a rough 2024 and will be hoping to live up to their “hype” next season. We’ll take a look at the players who led in some rough stat categories across the minors this year.
Let’s dig into this week’s highlighted players:
Hitters
Elijah Green, OF, Washington Nationals
Stats: 468 PA, .208/.293/.355, 13 HR, 39 SB, 46/206 BB/K
The son of former NFL Pro Bowl tight end Eric Green, Elijah was widely hyped coming into the 2022 draft, with many evaluating the draft stating that he possessed the most talent of any high school player in the draft. Ultimately, Green’s incredible athleticism would garner him the fifth overall pick by the Nationals.
In his pro debut, Green immediately showed all of the incredible tools and intense work that needed to be done to tap into those tools, hitting .302/.404/.535 in 12 games with a home run and a stolen base, but he also struck out more than 40% of the time.
Last season, Green started out on fire with the Nationals’ Florida Complex team, hitting .318/.483/.591 in eight games, earning a promotion to Single-A.
That’s when the wheels came off. In all, Green combined for a .218/.336/.327 line with five home runs and 31 stolen bases, posting a 14.4% walk rate and a 41.7% strikeout rate.
This season, Green returned to Fredericksburg, but he certainly didn’t hit any better. His grooved swing led to the most strikeouts of any hitter in the minor leagues, striking out more than 44% of the time. He did put up impressive speed numbers, stealing 39 bases in 42 attempts, and his arm in the outfield is double-plus, but he struggled with his routes in center field. His raw speed made up for it much of the time, but Green did make nine errors on the season, a high number for an outfielder.
Green will have plenty of work to do, but the raw tools are extremely high, so the Nationals will certainly give him time to mature into those raw athletic abilities.
Geraldo Quintero, OF/2B, Atlanta Braves
Stats: 338 PA, .240/.334/.319, 3 HR, 32 SB, 33/66 BB/K
Originally signed out of Venezuela, the diminutive Quintero (listed at 5'5" and 155 pounds) showed excellent plate discipline in the DSL in 2019 in his pro debut, hitting .264/.379/.376 with two home runs and 21 stolen bases in 237 plate appearances with a 30/28 BB/K rate.
After the pandemic year, Quintero played 2021 in the Florida Complex League, hitting .207/.312/.273 with 12 stolen bases and a 17/26 BB/K ratio, concerning some that the time off may have altered the switch-hitter’s eye.
Instead, he bounced back in Single-A in 2022, earning a late promotion to High-A. Overall, in 2022, he hit .258/.356/.412 over 514 plate appearances with 26 doubles, nine triples, eight home runs, and 34 stolen bases, truly filling up the stat sheet.
Despite the strong year, he spent all of 2023 with High-A Rome before moving to Double-A Mississippi this year. His move to the upper minors was not his only move of the year, as he spent the heavy majority of his playing time in the outfield for the first time in his career.
Quintero has a short, quick stroke that reminds many in the Braves organization of Ozzie Albies. This season, a significant lack of power left Quintero with one of the lowest wRC+ numbers in all of minor league baseball, so he has work to do next season, but there’s a potential bench bat there once he can access his above-average raw power.
Leo Balcazar, SS, Cincinnati Reds
Stats: 410 PA, .264/.295/.354, 6 HR, 9 SB, 14/100 BB/K
After a fairly humble signing bonus out of Venezuela in 2021, Balcazar went about impressing those who had a chance to see him play in the Dominican Summer League, hitting .259/.346/.536 with six home runs and eight stolen bases over 29 games.
The Reds brought Balcazar stateside in 2022, and he was perhaps even more impressive, hitting .322/.411/.476 with four home runs and 13 stolen bases in 42 games with an 18/42 K/BB ratio.
Last season, Balcazar was off to a big start with Single-A Daytona before an injury ended his season early. He hit .324/.427/.471 in 18 games with a significantly improved 13/22 BB/K in those games. He returned this year and struggled to a .556 OPS through July 31, but he turned it on from August 1 on, hitting .294/.324/.463 with five home runs over 34 games.
Unfortunately, that better performance still came with a very low walk rate, and Balcazar had one of the lowest walk rates in the minors this year, posting a 3.4% walk rate.
The raw talent for Balcazar is still tremendously high, but he needs to be able to work counts and take pitches to achieve the next level. He is still just 20 until next June, so he has plenty of time to work on that.
Robert Puason, OF, Oakland Athletics
Stats: 127 PA, .183/.260/.209, 3 2B, 4 SB, 9/43 BB/K
The Atlanta Braves put together a deal with a young teenage Puason, but leaving a notable paper trail on his deal along with multiple other international signing violations led to Puason being put back into the market. The A’s signed him in July 2019 for $5.1 million.
The pandemic led to his pro debut being delayed until 2021, when the A’s pushed the 18-year-old to Single-A Stockton in the California League. He struggled, hitting .215/.282/.291 with three home runs and three stolen bases. He walked 7.1% of the time and struck out 41.2% of the time.
The Athletics returned Puason to Stockton in 2022, but he struggled enough that he was demoted to the complex league, but he did not find much more success after the demotion. In all, he hit .214/.273/.297 over 359 plate appearances with three home runs and 11 steals. He walked 6.7% of his plate appearances and struck out in 33.7% of his trips to the plate.
The same pattern held in 2023, with time in Single-A that led down to complex. He hit .185/.255/.219 with a home run and 10 steals over 263 plate appearances with a 6.5% walk rate and a 32.7% strikeout rate.
Puason was heading toward a similar season this year before he was hurt. The big change this year is that Puason did not play a single game at shortstop, moving full-time to the outfield this year before his injury. Now 21, Puason has yet to show hitting ability that his former signing bonus indicated, leading to a move to the pitching mound going forward. Years from now, he very well may be a prime warning case for the folly of spending in Latin America.
Nazzan Zanetello, SS, Boston Red Sox
Stats: 345 PA, .157/.279/.279, 7 HR, 4 SB, 42/151 BB/K
One of the top athletes in the 2023 draft, Zanetello was committed to Arkansas before the Red Sox convinced him to forego his commitment with a $3 million bonus. He made a brief debut after the draft, playing in 14 games with a .158/.319/.237 line with five steals and a 9/15 BB/K ratio.
Zanetello hit well out of the gate this year, but he then was injured, and he could never get back on track all season. He would end up finishing the season with a 43.8% strikeout rate, one of the highest in the minor leagues.
Zanetello played center field and shortstop primarily on the showcase circuit, but he has spent his entire pro career on the dirt, playing shortstop and second base, while also spending 25 games at designated hitter.
The Red Sox can be patient with the athletic teenager as he turns his impressive talent into useful baseball tools, but he must adjust to professional pitching first and foremost, and that’s no slight task.
Pitchers
Karl Kauffmann, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Stats: 129 2/3 IP, 8.95 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, 74/76 K/BB
A star in the University of Michigan’s 2019 team that made a run to the College World Series, Kauffmann pitched 130 2/3 innings that season for the Wolverines with a 3.03 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and a 111/39 K/BB before Colorado selected the righty in the second round. After the heavy college workload, the Rockies chose to let Kauffmann rest and make his pro debut in 2020.
The pandemic pushed that pro debut back to 2021, which meant that Kauffmann was already 23 when making his first professional appearance. In 2021, he pitched in High-A and Double-A, throwing 91 1/3 innings with a 6.90 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, and a 73/43 K/BB ratio. He followed that up with a season split between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022, hurling 141 2/3 innings with a 4.96 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and a 144/79 K/BB ratio.
Last season, Kauffmann earned his way to the majors, pitching to a 6.43 ERA over 92 1/3 innings in Triple-A with a 1.81 WHIP and a 61/42 K/BB. He then threw 35 major league innings with an 8.23 ERA and 1.66 WHIP, posting a 16/16 K/BB ratio.
Kauffmann had by far the highest ERA of any pitcher with more than 100 innings pitched in the minor leagues this season, by more than a full run than any other pitcher. He struggled, walking more than he struck out.
The raw stuff has never been as important as the attacking mode on the mound for Kauffmann. His primary pitch is a heavy sinker that leads to plenty of contact and he pairs that with an above-average slider. His four-seam fastball and change are both fringe-average pitches at best, and after a 2020 shoulder injury, the exceptional feel that Kauffmann once possessed of his entire repertoire is no longer as precise. Unfortunately, he may be facing a permanent move to a swingman/bullpen role.
Mick Abel, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Stats: 108 2/3 IP, 6.46 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 117/78 K/BB
In the 2020 COVID-shortened season, high school pitchers really didn’t get enough time to establish their value, leading to difficulty evaluating prep arms. College arms were pushed up and more highly-valued that year in the draft because of that, but Abel’s stuff in high school in Oregon was so good that he was still selected in the top half of the first round. In fact, while young arms are typically a big thing to grab in the top of the draft, only seven high pitches were drafted in the first two rounds, 72 picks, in the 2020 draft.
The 6'5" righty showed very well in his first pro season, striking out 66 over 44 2/3 innings in Single-A. He was a consensus top-50 prospect in major lists heading into 2022. That season, he pitched in High-A and Double-A at 20 years old, tossing 108 1/3 innings with a 3.90 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, posting a 130/50 K/BB ratio and moved up to a consensus top-50 prospect.
Then came the struggles of 2023. His location was never quite on all season, and Abel pitched to a 4.13 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over 113 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, posting a 132/65 K/BB. This season, Abel had one of the highest FIP marks in the minor leagues while also struggling with the automated strike zone, to the tune of a 15% walk rate.
The bread and butter of Abel’s pitch mix is a mid-90s fastball that has tremendous carry through the zone. He works now with a sinker that he uses to establish both the top and bottom of the zone with heat. He has utilized three different slider shapes in his pro career, from a sharp slider to a gyro style pitch to a sweeper. It’s now settled in the middle of the variations, with a slider/cutter hybrid. He pairs the slider with a plus looping curve that freezes hitters to give him two plus breaking pitches — when he can locate them.
Alterations the Phillies have made with Abel’s delivery and arm path have left him seemingly uncomfortable on the mound. It may be a good thing to simply take Abel back to the drawing board and find what feels comfortable for him and let him push forward from there. He is still just 23 years old, so he has plenty of time to develop.
Nazier Mule, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Stats: 52 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 43/42 K/BB
Each draft class has a handful of guys who are from typically untapped areas that intrigue teams with their raw talent. Mule was one of those players in the 2022 draft from New Jersey, with incredible reports about his raw athleticism. His raw power at the plate and arm strength on the mound led to the Cubs selecting him in the fourth round.
After he was drafted, the Cubs found that he had a torn UCL, requiring surgery. That meant that he didn’t pitch in 2022 or 2023, making his debut in complex ball May 4 with a pair of scoreless innings, striking out five with one walk and two hits allowed.
Unfortunately, that would be one of the better appearances of the year for Mule as he struggled significantly with command and control. He never completed five innings in any start, maxing out at 61 pitches in a single appearance.
When he’s at his best, Mule can bump triple digits with the fastball but has 93–96 with the fastball primarily this year and showed a much better slider shape. His change looked like a legit weapon on the mound. He is still a teenager and will pitch all of 2025 at just 20 years old, so he has time to develop, but the control will certainly be the first order of improvement going forward if he wants to be effective.
Mike Vasil, RHP, New York Mets
Stats: 134 IP, 6.04 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 109/52 K/BB
Coming from a cold-weather high school in Massachusetts, Vasil did not have a major impact at the University of Virginia his first year, but he was off to a very strong start before COVID cut off the 2020 season. He moved to the top of the Virginia rotation in 2021 and showed elite command, walking just 18 in 81 2/3 innings, though he did allow a high number of home runs. The Mets snagged him in the eighth round.
He made just three appearances in complex ball in his draft year, striking out 10 without a walk over seven innings. In 2022, the 6'5" righty pitched across both A-ball levels, posting a 3.53 ERA over 71 1/3 innings with a 1.08 WHIP and a 85/26 K/BB. After struggling with home runs in college, he allowed just four in 2022. He showed well in the Arizona Fall League with a 2.93 ERA over 15 1/3 innings.
Last season, he spent most of his time between Double-A and Triple-A, throwing 124 innings with a 4.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and a 138/46 K/BB ratio. Vasil showed strong control, but with that, he also saw his home run numbers go up again.
This year, the righty tied for the most home runs allowed in the minors with 24. He can still spot his 92–94 MPH fastball well while using his plus slider as his primary secondary offering. His change and curve are reliable pitches for location, but neither is elite in movement, which allows for him to be hit hard.
There’s still a backend rotation arm if Vasil can develop his curve and change to even above-average pitchers as his command should allow him to avoid extra base runners, but his stuff is such that he’ll likely have plenty of games where he’s hit hard.
Will Bednar, RHP, San Francisco Giants
Stats: 54 IP, 6.00 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 76/47 K/BB
The brother of Pirates’ closer David Bednar, Will was a top recruit for Mississippi State out of high school in Pennsylvania. He pitched just 15 1/3 innings as a freshman but exploded on the scene as a draft-eligible sophomore, tossing 92 1/3 innings for the Bulldogs, with 139 strikeouts and 26 walks while posting a 3.12 ERA. He then went on to be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2021 College World Series as Mississippi State won in Omaha, tossing 18 1/3 innings during the CWS with a 1.47 ERA.
Bednar was selected 14th overall in the 2021 draft by the Giants and many assumed that he would move quickly to the major leagues. He opened his pro career with seven innings of 1.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP that had a 6/1 K/BB rate as well, getting many excited for his full-season debut the following year.
Injuries derailed his 2022, pitching just 43 innings of 4.19 ERA and 1.09 WHIP ball in Single-A with a 51/22 K/BB. He then pitched two times in the Arizona Fall League, getting hit hard to the tune of a 16.20 ERA over 3 1/3 innings.
Injuries were again the issue in 2023, as Bednar pitched just 10 2/3 innings before moving to the bullpen in the AFL, with major control struggles, walking nine and striking out eight in his 5 1/3 innings in fall ball.
This year, Bednar has pitched across three levels, struggling significantly in Triple-A (7.71 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 43/36 K/BB in 32 2/3 innings) while having some noted success in A-ball. Now 24, Bednar was pitching much of the season against hitters who were younger than he was and struggling mightily.
Overall, Bednar has the profile of a backend starter or middle reliever, featuring a low-90s fastball and a plus slider. His time away due to back injuries have led to little time developing his feel on his changeup which could mean he doesn’t work in a major league rotation, but after being among the minor league “leaders” in highest FIP, highest walk rate, and highest ERA, Bednar will likely need to move to the bullpen in 2025 to find a future MLB career.
Thanks for reading! Next week, we will be able to focus on the Arizona Fall League and highlight the players who will be heading there.
