Major League Baseball Mock Draft Monday, 1.0
I’ve done mock drafts for various outlets for a half-dozen years, but took the 2023 season off from doing such things. I’m very excited to dig into this year’s class!
First off, before we start, let’s lay out the expectations of what you’re going to get when I do these…
When I do a mock draft, I go through all the picks BEFORE the second round. This is based on guys that I’ve seen tied to organizations, organizational draft tendencies, and also the draft budget that each team has at its disposal. That final piece is often misunderstood by many when viewing what a mock draft projects. For instance, a team with a first round pick, but no pick again until the fourth round due to free agent signings is going to draft significantly different than a team with three selections in the first 40 picks, even if they both have the same exact first pick in the first round with the same exact players on the board to choose from.
Finally, this is an educated guess more than anything. I do plenty of reading on each of these players, but by no means do I consider myself an expert on any of them, as many I’ve only seen edited highlight videos on YouTube and social media to draw any sort of “scouting” from to inform my choices. I’ll include videos of the top 10 picks and then select players after that.
All that said, let’s dig in!
1. Cleveland Guardians — Charlie Condon, 3B, University of Georgia
To open the college season, Condon wasn’t really on my board at all for the top pick, but his season this year simply cannot be denied. The Guardians desperately need to come out of this selection with a sure-fire impact bat, and the player that set the BBCOR bat record in college baseball for home runs in a season. He may not stick at the hot corner, but his arm should play well in an outfield corner, and the bat will potentially move him quickly through Cleveland’s system.
2. Cincinnati Reds — Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State University
If it weren’t for Condon’s exploits, Bazzana would be eschewing typical bias against guys who start out their pro careers as a second baseman and potentially going first overall (and he very well still may). Bazzana has been dynamite at the top of the Beavers lineup this season, and the Reds will simply be looking for an impact player who can quickly ascend to join the strong young core developing in Cincinnati.
3. Colorado Rockies — Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, University of Florida
While Condon has been the talk of baseball in the power department, Caglianone’s improvement overall as a hitter has rocketed him up draft boards. Jac is incredibly well-built at 6'5" and 250 pounds with arguably the best power grade of any hitter in the draft, and he’s significantly cut his strikeout rate at the plate. His bat in Colorado would be an incredibly fun watch. Of course, he can also reach triple digits with his fastball with three average secondary offerings, but control struggles likely will mean Caglianone’s best route to MLB is at the plate.
4. Oakland Athletics — Hagen Smith, LHP, University of Arkansas
The talk of college baseball this year has been Smith as he has mowed down hitters from the left side with improved command. While Smith has posted a 35.6% strikeout rate during his college years, he’d struggled to a 13.4% walk rate in his first two seasons for the Razorbacks. This year, he’s trimmed that to less than 10%, though he still has work to do in that department. Smith to the A’s feels a lot like a similar elite lefty heading to Oakland in 2016 in A.J. Puk.
5. Chicago White Sox — Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
After a strong first two years at Stanford, Montgomery transferred to Texas A&M this season, and he’s arguably been the best all-around hitter this season, showing tremendous patience, excellent power, and also with strong defense in right field. In a lot of years, Montgomery would be a strong candidate for the first overall selection. The White Sox simply need to go for the best available player here and not worry about organizational fit, as the team is desperate for talent at the major league level and in the minors.
6. Kansas City Royals — Vance Honeycutt, OF, University of North Carolina
If you can figure out what the Royals’ draft room is thinking, you’re doing better than I am. I truly think the Royals could be the first spot that a high school player is selected if they can work a deal to spread more money across the draft, but Honeycutt really fits a lot of what the organization likes as far as a pure athlete with elite defensive characteristics. The strikeout rate is high, but over a 162-game pace in his college career, Honeycutt has put up 55 home runs and 75 steals with a .400+ on-base while being an elite center fielder.
7. St. Louis Cardinals — Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
The NCAA Division I leader in strikeouts this season, Burns has arguably the best overall stuff in the draft. His college career has been a bit of up-and-down, with an elite freshman season at Tennessee but a rough sophomore year before he transferred to Wake Forest. He very well could go anywhere ahead of this spot, but it feels like a perfect Cardinals pick to get a top-10 selection for a rare time in the organization’s history and to have a pitcher with Burns’ stuff fall into their lap.
8. Los Angeles Angels — Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
Though he’s a first base profile hitter, Kurtz is arguably the most pro-ready hitter in the entire draft with an excellent eye and elite power characteristics, with a .300+/.500+/.700+ slash over his three-year career with Wake Forest. While the Angels did pick a strong defender and hitter at first base last season, Kurtz would quickly move up the system and be hitting baseballs for the Halos before draft time in 2025 if he’s selected by the organization.
9. Pittsburgh Pirates — JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia University
If the Angels are left with a decision between Kurtz and Wetherholt, it could be a really tough choice for the Angels’ draft room. The Pirates will be more than happy to nab either one as both could quickly work to the Pittsburgh lineup at a position of need for the Pirates. Wetherholt would have potentially competed for the top overall draft slot if not for an early-season injury. He’s an excellent contact hitter that also adds the ability to drive the ball to all fields with power. His injury history (he also missed time in 2023 due to injury) could drop him to this spot, but the Pirates would be foolish to pass over him if he’s still on the board here.
10. Washington Nationals — Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
Not highly pursued out of high school in Pennsylvania, Yesavage found his way to East Carolina and moved from the bullpen to the rotation in his sophomore year, with a strong season for the Pirates. This year, he’s taken a huge step forward and could end up going higher than this spot with a four-pitch mix that all flashes plus and strong control of all four pitches. He has established himself as the third college starter in the pecking order this spring, and the Nationals are likely going to be pushing for a guy who could impact sooner rather than later with the players available in this spot as well as where the organization currently sits from top to bottom.
11. Detroit Tigers — Bryce Rainer, SS, California HS
The fun question in the 2024 draft will be two-fold: first, which high school player will go first in the draft and will that player go within the first ten picks? Rainer certainly is a candidate to answer that first question and could certainly push his way into the top 10 selections. The Tigers will certainly be happy to be making the decision between the two in this spot. Rainer is an elite defensive shortstop with strong instincts around the game on the offensive side of the ball, but perhaps not elite upside in power. Think the profile that Jacob Wilson offered as a collegiate player last season.
12. Boston Red Sox — Konnor Griffin, OF, Mississippi HS
The Red Sox would fall into a similar situation that they’ve enjoyed multiple times over the last decade in the draft with a player that they didn’t feel would be on the board landing right in their lap. Griffin reclassified from the 2025 class to the 2024 class, and his impressive blend of power and speed has him ranked by many places as the top high school option this season. Griffin has shown strong athleticism at both center field and shortstop, giving him even more value, though he seems to have more instincts on the grass. This is a player that could quickly become a favorite of prospect lists with his toolsy profile.
13. San Francisco Giants — Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State
While the Giants would LOVE for one of the top two prep guys to fall to them or one of the top three arms to land in this spot, they’ll likely head to the college bat class if neither is still available at pick 13. Smith is one of those guys who doesn’t stand out in any one aspect of his game but gets 50–60 grades across the board. He showed very well with a wood bat in Cape Cod League play last summer, and he’s continued that strong play this season for the Seminoles.
14. Chicago Cubs — Seaver King, SS, Wake Forest
After a pair of very strong seasons at Wingate, King excelled at the Cape Cod League last summer, slashing .424/.479/.542 over 16 games. He made the move this year to center field and has received rave reviews on his defense there, but King has also played short, third, and second this year for the Demon Deacons. His mature bat and defensive versatility should appeal strongly to the Cubs.
15. Seattle Mariners — Billy Amick, 3B, University of Tennessee
After hitting .413 with 13 home runs for Clemson last season as a first baseman, Amick transferred to Tennessee to play third for the Vols. While the average hasn’t been as strong playing an SEC schedule, but his on-base and slugging have been nearly equal to his time at Clemson while working at the hot corner. Amick has the arm to stick at third and has made impressive progress defensively throughout the season to look like he can stick there going forward. More than anything, Amick gets very, very high marks on the intangibles, giving the M’s a guy who will do all he can to maximize his ability.
16. Miami Marlins — James Tibbs III, 1B, Florida State
This is one of those rare moments that team/organizational need could figure in to the selection. Tibbs is one of the best power hitters in the draft, with a 162-game pace of 45 doubles and 45 home runs, which is impressive production. He did move to the outfield in his time in the Cape Cod League last summer, and he’s played primarily right field this season, so he could end up sticking in a corner outfield spot, but the bat should be strong enough that he can play first base and be a strong contributor.
17. Milwaukee Brewers — Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke
The Brewers will most likely be deciding among a number of collegiate options in this spot, with plenty of bats projected around this area and this slot really being the first spot after the top three college arms where an arm could land. Santucci is one of the more interesting pitchers in the draft with a three-pitch mix led by a fastball that sits in the mid-90s. He’s been able to be healthy this year and show tremendous strikeout stuff, and his raw stuff seems to really fit the Brewers farm system mold.
18. Tampa Bay Rays — Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State
A player with some mixed reviews in different draft rankings, Culpepper has a plus arm and moved to short full-time this season and has handled the assignment very well. He may require a move to third base, but he could be an elite defender at the hot corner. Culpepper has put up impressive numbers in his three years as a starter with Kansas State, potentially slashing .300+/.400+/.500+ in his collegiate career. Culpepper may not have the raw power you’d expect from a third baseman, but that’s never stopped the Rays from grabbing a guy who’s shown well at multiple defensive positions with “good enough” offensive production.
19. New York Mets — Tommy White, 3B, Louisiana State
“Tommy Tanks” set the world afire in his freshman season at North Carolina State, knocking out 27 home runs. He then transferred to LSU and won a national title last season with impressive work at the plate during the Tigers’ run to a title in Omaha. He’s not had the same level of offensive production this year, but he’ll finish his collegiate career with 20+ home runs in every year and a 1.100 OPS, so the bat’s for real. The Mets could use power in their system for sure, and White should be a fast-mover that could be a value if he falls to this spot.
20. Toronto Blue Jays — Caleb Lomavita, C, University of California-Berkeley
In a draft with up to five potential first-round backstops, Lomavita stands out above the rest for his combination of defensive aptitude and offensive ability. To be clear, the defense still has some work needed, but Lomavita is very athletic behind the plate and could quickly adapt with pro coaching. The bat could generate plus power and hit grades, and this seems like the floor for the first catcher to go off the board in this draft.
21. Minnesota Twins — Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
The Twins are in a great position where they could simply sit back and wait for what falls to them. In this case, they have the next tier of high school players or the end of a tier of collegiate bats to choose from. Moore could absolutely be a value in this spot as his bat should definitely play, and many have compared where he is in his overall game to current Twins catcher Ryan Jeffers, so Moore would have an excellent mentor in-house as he climbs the system.
22. Baltimore Orioles — Cam Caminiti, LHP, Arizona HS
While Caminiti is ranked lower on most lists than this spot, he’s the top prep lefty, and the Orioles are really going to be playing with house money, allowing them to shoot for a guy that they really like. I’ve received no indication that the Orioles are big on Caminiti specifically, but he’ll still be 17 when he’s drafted and has incredibly elite stuff that could eventually lead to a top of the rotation arm after development as he already works with a low-90s fastball, a slider and a curve that flash plus but are inconsistent, and he has feel for a change that he doesn’t use much — yet.
23. Los Angeles Dodgers — Slade Caldwell, OF, Arkansas HS
Caldwell’s height (5'6") seems to be the thing brought up about him right away when you talk with people. His lack of height leads to a lot of questions that scouts often ask about someone who doesn’t fit the ideal body style. However, Caldwell is an elite center fielder, and many compare him to Max Clark, who was a top-five selection last year. While Caldwell may only have fringe-average power, he loads up the scouting grades in all other facets and feels like a great selection for the Dodgers here.
24. Atlanta Braves — Carson Benge, OF/RHP, Oklahoma State
Benge has some interest as both a pitcher and a hitter, and the Braves have been big fans of that profile in the last few years. While Benge is up to 96 on the mound with three average or better secondary offerings, his future is likely better set as a hitter. He’ll need some work as his raw power doesn’t produce in game, but being able to tap into that raw power more could allow Benge to be an elite corner outfield prospect with his plus arm.
25. San Diego Padres — Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston State
A defensive stalwart behind the plate should get Janek plenty of attention, but his hitting ability has turned a lot more heads this year, and he could push earlier than this in the first round, though he’s likely the third of the three sure-fire first-round catchers this year. Interestingly, Janek has spent time at second and third in his collegiate career, showing his athleticism, and his power/speed combination at the plate will definitely bring attention.
26. New York Yankees — Ben Hess, RHP, University of Alabama
A big, 6'5", 250-pound righty, Hess has been a productive pitcher over his three years at Alabama. His numbers this year are rough, as he’s posting a 6.89 ERA through this weekend, but his 79 strikeouts in 48 1/3 innings. He reminds a lot of pro scouts of Lance Lynn with his impressive four-seam fastball with plenty of carry and the ability to shape his slider in multiple ways to generate swing and miss. The Yankees have had success working with similar arms and could be an excellent landing spot for Hess.
27. Philadelphia Phillies — Kellon Lindsey, SS, Florida HS
A guy who has really popped this year, Lindsey is an elite athlete who has college interest in football. He’s potentially the fastest runner in this year’s draft class and could work very well in center field or at shortstop with his jumps at both positions. Lindsey has shown well on offense this year, but like many pop-up prospects, there are questions whether he’ll be able to sustain the power in his profile that he’s shown this year, but even if he doesn’t, the speed and contact skills could allow him to be a legit prospect.
28. Houston Astros — Dakota Jordan, OF, Mississippi State
An elite athlete, Jordan shows plus power and plus speed, Jordan was a two-sport recruit at Mississippi State in football and baseball but has given up football. He still often plays on the diamond as if he’s on the gridiron, not showing great patience and being overly aggressive, especially with breaking pitches. Jordan’s raw tools are rare, though, and this is exactly the type of player that the Astros bring in as a college player that could end up a legit top-100 prospect in a couple of years.
29. Arizona Diamondbacks — William Schmidt, RHP, Louisiana HS
Schmidt is considered the top prep arm, but as the draft falls, it may take a pretty strong offer to bring him on board. At this point in the draft, the Diamondbacks fit that mold as they have three selections in the top 40, though this is the team’s first selection, so they could simply work with whomever falls to them at this spot. Schmidt has room to grow into his 6'3" frame, but he can work into the mid-90s with a curve that could potentially be the best breaking pitch in this year’s draft.
30. Texas Rangers — Jacob Cozart, C, North Carolina State
Cozart’s a big catcher but is recognized for his impressive defensive skills behind the plate where he should be able to stick. At the plate, he has above-average hitting ability and power from the left side. Cozart has received multiple nods as the best catcher available on the season, so don’t be surprised if he’s selected earlier than this spot.
31. Arizona Diamondbacks — Ryan Forcucci, RHP, University of California-San Diego
After making the jump for Schmidt, the natural move for the Diamondbacks would be to grab a college arm to balance out that cost. While he might still be too spendy to fit here, Forcucci has the sort of background to work as a potential selection here, striking out 159 over 132 1/3 innings. He works from a lower release point and works his fastball up to 97 MPH. There’s some relief risk, but he could be an effective back-rotation starter if he can hang in the rotation.
32. Baltimore Orioles — Drew Beam, RHP, University of Tennessee
While Beam may not profile as a top-rotation starter, he’s been a consistent performer in college in the SEC. He uses five different pitches and has a prototype build (6'4", 210) to work as a mid-rotation starter. Beam has impressive command and control that should allow him to work well as a future starter. Beam would work well for the Orioles after taking the chance on Caminiti earlier in the round.
33. Minnesota Twins — Caleb Bonemer, SS, Michigan HS
I’m usually a big fan of cold-weather guys, but beyond that, I really like Bonemer’s profile and think he could be a tremendous value at the end of the round. He’s got an impressive power/speed combination, though he’s altered his swing multiple times already, so finding one that works for him will be vital, and the organization that selects him will need to be comfortable with allowing him to work that out in the lower minors before he could potentially move quickly after that. Bonemer could stick at short long-term due to elite athleticism.
34. Milwaukee Brewers — Theodore Gillen, SS, Texas HS
Gillen has taken a hit from the view many had on him from an early age as one of the top prospects in this year’s high school class. He suffered a shoulder injury two years ago, and his arm strength hasn’t been the same since. He is still an incredible athlete and his offense has begun to really take a step forward. Pairing Santucci and Gillen could be a first round of risk for Milwaukee, but it should also give them money to spread later into the draft, something they’ve done in the past.
35. Arizona Diamondbacks — Braylon Payne, OF, Texas HS
Payne is one of my favorite late first round picks that reminds me a lot of Enrique Bradfield, who the Orioles selected last season. He is one of the youngest players in this year’s draft, so some teams will certainly bump him up their board for that reason alone, but the 80-grade raw speed and bat-to-ball skills should be attractive as well, and he’d make an excellent third piece to the early Arizona draft haul.
36. Cleveland Guardians — Mike Sirota, OF, Northeastern University
If the draft works out this way, and the Guardians pull off arguably the best hitter in the draft and the best center field defender in the draft in the first round, Cleveland fans should be doing backflips. Sirota may not attend a power school, but his draft profile has long been one of the best in the country. He will graduate with 30 homers and 45 stolen bases over 150ish college games and has already shown his ability with the wood bat in the Cape Cod League, slashing .312/.465/.477 over two summers there.
37. Pittsburgh Pirates — Brody Brecht, RHP, University of Iowa
After playing with Iowa’s football team as a receiver, Brecht chose to focus on baseball this year and his raw pitch characteristics screamed big upside. The issue has been getting consistency out of that big raw stuff. Brecht is one of the few collegiate arms to have topped 100 strikeouts this season, but he’s also walking 14% of hitters right now. The risk will allow him to drop to this point, but the upside could be too much for Pittsburgh to pass on here.
38. Colorado Rockies — Carter Johnson, SS, Alabama HS
Johnson seems to fall out of bed and get a single. He’s one of the best pure hitters in this year’s draft, reminding me a lot of Kevin McGonigle in last year’s draft. The big difference between he and McGonigle is that he’s a legit shortstop with that sort of bat control, though he still may fit better at second long-term. He’s also got more raw power in his profile, making him an interesting selection for the Rockies.
39. Kansas City Royals — Luke Holman, RHP, Louisiana State
After two seasons with Alabama where he showed well, even challenging Paul Skenes for the WHIP title in the SEC last season, Holman decided to jump ship and succeed Skenes at LSU. It’s gone very well, to say the least. Holman should top 100 strikeouts on the season and has posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this season. He’s built and pitches like a sturdy #3/4 starter that could potentially move quickly through K.C.’s farm system.
Tune back in Memorial Day for the next update as we prepare for the draft beginning Sunday, July 14.
